We get why it has long been said for Cleveland to have been built on pessimism. It is a great, proud city that the Rust Belt economy left behind, less than half the population it had in the Fifties, an exodus of Fortune 500 companies and despite a spectacular suburban lifestyle, has a shocking percentage of its inhabitants within the city limits at or below the poverty line.
And we all know that it has been since 1964 since a Cleveland team—no, the Barons did not win a Stanley Cup— have won a championship. So when the Cavaliers had their parade through the streets this week, it resonated with Indians officials. As it should. Not only have the Indians been one of the proving grounds for cutting edge thought, executive development and an organizational culture, but, in the week when Lebron and friends paraded, the Indians were in the middle of a run that by Sunday morning reached eight straight wins and the best run differential in the American League.
“If you were to ask, ‘what American League team would best match up with the Giants or Cubs in the world series,” said one American League manager, “I think the majority of those of us watching them from the opposing dugout would say the Indians. They have the great starting pitching, and that starting pitching is really deep.”
“Corey Kluber has won a Cy Young. Carlos Carrasco could win one, and so could Danny Salazar, and now Trevor Bauer looks like he could, too. Their defense is really good.”
And they have a great manager with two world series rings and an advance reservation for Cooperstown.
Their starting pitchers lead the majors with a 3.63 earned run average. They hold opponents to the lowest batting average (.236) and OPS (.679). They have the most complete games and shutouts and have allowed the fewest stolen bases (12). They’re second to the Rays in strikeouts per 9 innings and to the Blue Jays in quality starts.
And Carrasco is back healthy. Kluber is shifting into overdrive. Salazar has dynamite stuff, especially a changeup that darts like a split that has been identified as the most unhittable pitch in the game. Going into Sunday’s start, the Indians had won 11 of Josh Tomlin’s 13 starts. Then there’s Bauer, whose drive for perfection and stubborn streak had created doubt in some who forgot that he’s still 25.
This passed week Bauer fashioned his fourth straight strong start, a complete game Wednesday that gave him 32 strikeouts and 6 walks in 31.2 innings and recalled what pitching coach Mickey Callaway said in early May:that this rotation might have four pitchers who could win Cy Young awards.
Including Bauer, whose career was filled with stops and starts. After opening the season in the bullpen, Bauer’s game was seemingly aligned in sync with catcher Chris Gimenez, whom he trusts, whom he respected when he caught Yu Darvish, who fascinates Bauer. The 25 year old has changed from 4-seam and power curveball to working down on either side of the plate with his 2-seamer and cutter. He runs his 2-seamer in at lefthanded hitters hips, and with the high fastball and his signature curveball, uses the entire zone. He accepted change, he’s become comfortable with that change, and one can argue that the Indians’ five man rotation is the best in the game.
Going into the final days of June, the Indians starters were 17-6, 2.12. They led in bullpen ERA, 2.14. They had swept the Royals, and for the season were 8-0 against the Tigers, outscoring them 51-17.
There is, of course, a long way to go. They don’t know when and at what strength Michael Brantley will return. Fransisco Lindor (.306, 10 HR, .837) is a marvel. They continue to hope for a big second half from Carlos Santana. And there is hope that if they continue to lead the addition, what a World Series trip would mean to the city and to the franchise would fortify the worst attendance in the majors (16,656) and the danger of the Republican Convention trashing the stadium, and allow a two month rental of a proven hitter like Carlos Beltran.
It may be that when Lebron went through the streets, it added hope to attempts to get people to re-settle in the city, to shop and eat downtown. That, in turn, would impact baseball, re-engage the suburban Indian fan base with one of the most game’s most appealing teams.
If one looks at the market revenues and the restrictions it puts on the front office, somehow it seems meet, and right. Granted, the post-Nineties Indians have paled in comparison to the Albert Belle/Jim Thome/Manny Ramirez/Roberto Alomar/Kenny Lofton/Sandy Alomar teams that packed The Jake. But that was another time, really another place. There was no NFL franchise, Lebron James was just a growing boy in Akron, the business community was different, the brilliantly-conceived Rock’n Roll Hall of Fame and The Flats were hot and we sang along with “This is our town.”
Think what this team could accomplish against overwhelming odds. They cannot pay $4.9M to Nomar Mazzara. They cannot compete for Jose Abreu or Moncada. And, as we see in the draft, that works against them, as well.
Look, what MLB has tried to do to the draft and keep teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, et al from loading up in rounds 3-10 with “unsignables” has made the system far fairer and better than it was in 2011, before the slotting system.
But the system has its flaws. Big market teams like the Cubs, Astros, and Braves can get high picks and huge signing pools by being bad. But when Cleveland, Oakland or Tampa Bay keeps respectable, there is little help to even revenue advantages, so the Indians almost every year were picking lower than the Astros or Cubs, with less spending pool money available.
That creates corruption. One Big Pool team asked one top-talent pitcher to tell teams he had a $2M offer, which could drop him deep into the second round with a $1.5M promise. The pitcher refused to do what he considered to be the equivalent of lying; he got $1.6M anyway.
New Jersey high school lefthander Jason Groome fell to 12th because his agent had a $6M deal promised from another Big Pool team if he could get him to a 20-something pick. The general managers of the teams trying to make the deals outside the system are under a great deal of pressure to rebuild, but with the labor agreement up at the end of the season, there will be a push for slots to include market size, possibly a set number for each pick and strict penalties such as a loss of a draft pick for the types of deals offered agents by the two National League teams involved.
Those things don’t happen with the Indians, or the Royals, Cubs, Giants. And look at the Cleveland system with mid-first round picks, except for 2013, when with the fifth pick they took Georgia HS outfielder Clint Frazier, who is already double-A and projected to be an impact hitter.
In 2011, they got Lindor, then in later rounds got Cody Allen and Cody Anderson. In 2012, they got Tyler Naquin. In 2015, they took Brad Zimmer, close to the majors, and A ball slugger Bobby Bradley. In 2015, they took Brady Aiken. In their system now they have a 20-year old catcher named Fransico Mejia who leads the Midwest League in OPS and throwing out runners.
The Indians and Pirates are examples of teams that have developed winning teams—the Pirates were second in MLB in wins 2013-15—in a small market with small revenue. The Cubs are different, but they never missed on high picks (last year’s top pick, Ian Happ, is already in AA).
Mickey Rivers was born two weeks after the Indians won that 1948 world series. That’s a while ago, as the good people of Ohio remember, and, well, now the Cavaliers have paraded through The Square, and now that the chronic pessimism has been burned off, it’s all right to ask:why not the Indians?